Election 2018

The 2018 midterms are quickly approaching, so it’s time for some perspective…

In the 2016 election cycle, the mostly laughed-at Donald Trump, again, threw his hat into the ring. No one in the media took him seriously and, indeed, there wasn’t much TO take seriously. Here was a guy who had declared himself a candidate in past elections, and was always…. ALWAYS …. eliminated quickly. He had no political experience, he was well known for his reality show and, frankly, carried as much weight as Pat Paulson. He was running against a raft of political professionals in his own Party: Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, just to name a few. Additionally, both Hillary Clinton and Socialist/Independent/“Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders were in the race. By ANY measure, the odds were stacked against him.

Then, the unthinkable happened: Trump garnered enough primary wins to become the Republican nominee. On the other side, Hillary secured the nomination for the Democrat Party. From that very moment, Clinton was considered a shoo-in. In fact, several pundits gave her a 100% chance of winning the election.

100%.

Throughout the campaign season, polls were never ….. NOT ONCE … in Trump’s favor and, if chances for Clinton’s win COULD get higher than 100%, they would have. 2016, to quote the “experts” was going to be a Hillary slam dunk. A rout. A landslide.

But there was one thing the pundits didn’t count on: the American voters. YOU.

YOU, the voters, took it upon yourselves to self-educate on the issues. You did your research, wading through unimaginable amounts of information, some good, some bad, available on the internet. You read your history, you looked at the data, the facts and the stats. You took nothing for granted and questioned everything. And, while the media focused on Trump’s failures and shortcomings, you focused on a more balanced view:

-       - Yes, Trump has experienced failures in his business dealings throughout his career. But no pundit bothered to consider that NO famous person, from athlete to business executive to movie star, has ever claimed “no failures, ever”. In fact, in recalling their failures, ALL successful people point TO those failures as powerful lessons, critical to their success.

-       - Yes, Trump has said and done some remarkably stupid things, for which there is no excuse. But neither have stupid things said been destroyer of the likes of Hillary, Bill, Biden, Warren, Rangel, Pelosi, Reid…..or nearly ANY other Democrat. And, taken thus, amounted to a meaningless, often hypocritical, point.

-       - Yes, Trump had no experience in the political arena. But political experience didn’t make ANY other politician a person better suited for office. In fact, “political experience” got us where we were in 2016, with out of control debt, consumer confidence abysmal, horrific unemployment numbers for blacks, women and teens, etc. And, Trump, WITHOUT political experience, beat out ALL other politically experienced Republicans in the race to the Presidency.

-       - Yes, Trump had no experience in world politics. Yet, he regularly dealt with the major players, including government officials all over the world and was, somehow, able to strike deals.

What Trump was turning out to be was….a businessman and a strategist. A CEO, known for taking failing companies and turning them around. And let’s, right now, get something VERY clear: America is a business; a $3+ TRILLION business. Who better to handle the biggest business in the world than a Chief Executive used to handling huge businesses?

So, while not all Republicans began supporting him, many Americans did; YOU did. And you steadfastly refused to kow to the breathtaking amount of negativity from the media and the Left. In fact, the 2016 election saw a match up between many “Republicans”, Democrats, “Independents”, Socialists and the media...against YOU.

I cannot stress enough how important not only were your efforts to self-educate, but you did something not seen in MANY years: you got ACTIVE. You engaged the media. You engaged the opposition. You committed yourselves to the fight for our country and our Constitution. Trump’s numbers in social media platforms FAR outweighed Hillary’s. To me, it was a clear indicator that Trump had serious momentum. And the media ignored it, relying, instead, on conventional polling data.

Meanwhile, right up until and including November 8^th, Hillary was favored to win with a 95% chance; so, in the media’s opinion, Trump had “gained” five points, throughout the entire election season.

Five points.

Election day came and the exit polls, as they do in nearly every election, had the Democrat, Hillary, winning in a landslide. But even with those early returns and exit polls, you went out and voted.

And, as the day and night burned on, Trump … YOU … began to win.

I recall sitting in my favorite cigar lounge, watching the returns. As the clock approached 3:00pm, I commented that, if Trump takes Florida, he’ll win. In fact, I suggested that if he took Florida, he’d more than likely run the table (Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Minnesota or Wisconsin).

And he did.

Because of YOU.

I also recall, in early November, Facebook postings started running to the “thank God it’s OVER” memes and comments; to which I responded (as I usually do, every post-election) “No……the fight is just beginning.” And, further commented that that attitude (“TGIO”) was WHY Americans believe they have no say in politics. We vote, then go back to sleep, assuming that those we elect are going to do what they promise. They don’t. In fact, the moment they win is the moment THEY become their own primary interest. And, yes, that’s ALL politicians.

Now, we will be voting in the midterms. Statistically, the Republican Party SHOULD lose up to 40 seats in the House and 6-7 seats in the Senate (average of losses for Party in Executive Office). Anything LESS than that must be considered to be a strong vindication of Trump’s performance, while losing MORE would be a clear repudiation.

Right now, I see what I believe to be clear indicators that there exists NO “blue wave” happening:

-       - Social media, again, is extremely active. YOU are engaging.

-       - With nearly ALL mainstream media outlets, Hollywood, entertainers (Maher, Colbert, The View, etc) reporting nearly 100% anti-Trump, generic polls have Democrats ahead by only 12 points. (In the run up to 2016, polls in October had Clinton ahead by around 8 points, and showed Clinton trending up, pulling away, in early November). (Are we home free? Not by a LONG shot. We have MUCH more work to do, folks).

-       - Yesterday, it was reported (Gallup) that Democrats have slid 6 points this year in the “women” vote and are now TRAILING with the “middle class” vote.

-       - Republican favorability is the highest in nineteen years, while Democrats favorability has dropped a point.

-       - Consumer confidence is at an eighteen-year high.

-       - Trump’s favorability is rising with both black and Hispanic voters.

-       - According to “RealClearPolitics”, Trump is trending UP with gays and millennials.

Let’s be clear about something: while NOT a sure thing, what is happening right now is because of YOU. You, in continuing to fight, are protecting President Trump, who has gone a LONG way to fulfilling his campaign promises….with CLEAR, positive results.

YOU are protecting our Constitution. 

We took a HUGE risk in supporting Trump, a fundamentally unknown entity, and it is paying off. BUT, if we lose either house, we lose our momentum….period. If Democrats take EITHER side of Congress, they will be relentless in their pursuit to undo EVERYTHING that WE have accomplished since the election.

What is at stake?

-       - Your tax breaks (to you, individually, as well as businesses). You’ll not only be paying more, but unemployment will begin to increase dramatically (think 2006, when Democrats took control of Congress). Specifically, blacks, Hispanics, women and teens will be the hardest-hit.

-       - De-regulation. The regulations that have been strangling American businesses will be reinstated.

-       - The judiciary. No longer will Conservative nominations stand a chance.

-       - SCOTUS. Again, NO conservative will be elevated to the highest court (this will have life-long implications). Which, for one thing, means that the more grotesque abuse to human rights since slavery will remain the law of the land. (Slavery was law for over 200 years…)

-       - Consumer confidence will plummet.

-       - Border security. There will be none, as Democrats FIRMLY believe in open borders, without enforcement.

-       - American businesses, who are tentatively growing in confidence, will grind to a halt, sending jobs, once again, overseas.

-       - Foreign policy advances will come to a standstill. (the Koreas, Russia, China, etc).

And these are just a few of the staggering losses we will see, should Democrats take either, or both, houses.

So, I beg of you, as tiring as it may be, DO NOT relax. It is for SURE that Democrats won’t. And, not to put too fine a point on it: if Democrats win, SOCIALISM wins. And Socialism is as relentless as cancer.

And that cancer will kill our Constitution.

Tim Hirota

September 25th, 2018

timothyhirota1@gmail.com (For when Facebook bans me...)